@gilmcgowan | 8,352 followers
This is really important. The latest oil demand projections from the International Energy Agency are out today. They suggest that if the world starts living up to the promises they’ve made on climate action, demand for oil will collapse over the next 20 years. #ableg #abpoli

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Total of 16 replies and 35 quotes found
This is a more important challenge to Kenney than Blanchet's remarks.
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
Why is this important for Alberta? Because declining demand, coupled with increasing production (especially from US frackers), is a recipe for another oil price collapse. And when prices collapse, investment and jobs follow suit. #ableg #abpoli #cdnpoli
 
In reply to @jkenney
You’re delivering this speech the same day that the International Energy Agency released a report saying that demand for oil will stagnate or even collapse in the near future. Essentially, you’re betting the world will do nothing about climate change. twitter.com/gilmcgowan/sta…
 
I have a column on this that should be posted this afternoon. And it's not just the IEA radically altering their forecasts.
 
Wow. IEA tracks our 2018 paper, based on intern models (EMF27). Our 2C estimate for 2045 = global oil demand 69 mbd, ave oil price $40, and global c-tax $300, making tar sands uncompetitive. Link to paper. drive.google.com/file/d/1ysXS3B…
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
I just finished reading Rachel Maddow's book, Blowout. Although she doesn't mention Alberta, it is like she's writing it about us. The "resource curse" is real and we voted out a government who was diversifying for one who will sell out all Albertans to appease the O&G industry
 
In reply to @a_picazo
Meanwhile, in reality:
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
has no ideas other than ‘more oil’. He has no concrete, viable plan for the next 5 years, never mind 20. So many tired, old, outdated ideas. #ableg
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
Sounds good. Diversify. There will be less and less reliance on fossil fuels. Don't be a prov or country in economic peril because of a refusal to take the threat seriously and diversify. We have seen where that takes people.
 
Global oil demand projected to drop 10% over next decade under IEA's sustainable development scenario (note critics point out even SDS scenario underestimates change needed to get to 1.5 degrees). Critical conversation missing in Canada and Alberta #ableg #cdnpoli
 
Put this in your pipe and smoke it, #Wexit Weenies.
 
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
That's not enough time to recoup the costs of building the TMX. Maybe #NoTMX would be a smarter investment decision.
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
1000% this! 4 years of Kenney is going to kill Alberta.
 
IEA’s “Stated Policies Scenario” (today’s policy intentions and targets) energy demand rises 1% /yr to 2040. Oil demand flattens out in 2030s (not “collapses”). And that’s before including R&D potential for lower net carbon oil eg CCUS and bio-energy CCS.
iea.org/topics/carbon-…
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
In the mean time let's get as much oil and gas to international markets. Try to displace some of that dirty oil and maximize our energy revenues. Better to finance transition...pay for all of the renewable energy subsidies...invest in cleaner tech...etc
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
I just read the IAE report. That’s not what it says. It says demand for oil will increase and then hold steady. That’s good news for your union workers. Thanks.
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
Does this mean that Cdns will not have to battle AB labour unions to get effective #ClimateAction?
 
If you aren’t listening to this, you don’t care about Alberta’s future. O&G is no longer a growth industry. At best it is maturing and at worst in decline. Reality sucks but we face it and work together to go forward.
 
It is not unreasonable to expect a fast collapse as alternatives become cheaper and cheaper , then there is the new oil source in Iran factor too.
 
 
What's the projected lifetime for a new pipeline? (Checks notes) Ah yes, 50-60 years. Hmmmm. #TMX #ClimateEmergency #cdnpoli #abpoli
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
This is reality: this is not the fault of Trudeau!
 
Operative word is IF. 😂😂😂😂😂😂
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
So let's throw in the towel and change course and not compete for a share of the industry that puts Alberta on the map? One buyer of AB heavy oil - USGC. That's the problem. California and Asia are also large buyers. No means to get it there. Pipelines to West Coast would.
 
Lalalalalalalalalalalalala I can’t hear you 🙉
 
This is huge, and Alberta isn't ready for it.
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
So Gil you should recommend those greedy but hard working oil workers take a cut in pay to prepare for their soon to be unemployment
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
“They suggest if...” That’s one big if!!!
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
This is not possible unless governments start banning cars (which they absolutely should). The SUVs sold today - the majority of new car sales globally - determine most global oil demand through ~ 2033.
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
Spoiler: The world will not live to the promises they've made on climate action. #ableg #cdnpoli
 
In reply to @gilmcgowan
Sounds like a pretty big IF. Considering past agreements and targets.
 
This is not the first time Alberta is facing a potential drop in supply or demand of a major element of the economy.
We can learn from the successful approach the province took last time: policyschool.ca/wp-content/upl…
 
Kenney is delusional - tonight he's tweeting about growing demand for Alberta oil. RT @stphnmaher This is a more important challenge to Kenney than Blanchet's remarks.
 
Alberta is fucked
 
An important thread if you are from Alberta
 
 
So, the demand for oil collapses over the next 20 years, or we doom our children & grandchildren to constant wildfires, hurricanes, heat death, drought, flood, food shortages, waves of climate refugees, new disease outbreaks, and water wars. Did I understand the choice clearly?
 
Clearly, the answer is to build #TMX
*sarc
 
 
And this is why it is time to start making a real plan to help Albertans instead of hoping for a revival of a fading industry.
 
In reply to @jkenney
@jkenney better get his resume into « job creator » McDonalds quick-like. #abpoli #cdnpoli
 
Inconvenient truth- oh, except for the future health of the planet.
 
Time to plug myself: …eportedandmisremembered.wordpress.com/2019/11/01/lin…

TL;DR: Biggest threat to oil is demand disruption. Sector is not scared of being replaced in absolute terms, but for growth to shift elsewhere. Small changes in growth rates have huge price impacts through supply/production chains.
 
 
Albertans need to know this. The Alberta government needs to be diversifying the economy in anticipation of this. #kenney & #Scheer need to lay off #Trudeau & start working with Ottawa to prepare for post-oil economy. #cdnpoli #ABleg #Abpoli
 
Albertans need to know this. The Alberta government needs to be diversifying the economy in anticipation of this. #kenney & #Scheer need to lay off #Trudeau & start working with Ottawa to prepare for post-oil economy. #cdnpoli #ABleg #Abpoli
 
 
This thread. Why is the UCP keeping all our eggs in the oil basket? Ideology?
 
 
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