@ScottGottliebMD | 264,313 followers
Singapore's exquisite public health system provides confidence they're probably capturing a high percent of their total #COVID2019 case burden; so the 6 cases in critical condition of 72 total diagnosed gives perhaps one of the best estimates to date of #SARSCoV2 virulence.

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#SARSCoV2 #COVID19
シンガポールの現況が、今の時点で、この病気の毒性を判断するのによい指標になるのではないかとのこと。

シンガポール
現在、感染者数72名、そのうち、重症者6名
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
You also should acknowledge the excellent public health system in Taiwan for their fight against #COVID19 Taiwan: 18 cases with no critical cases. One patient has been discharged from hospital. No community based transmission so far
 
Even 9-10% critical is alarming. As @rtnarch & many others have painstakingly explained, even advanced healthcare systems don’t have 9% of N free ICU/ARDS beds, where N is sub-pandemic # of COVID19 cases (eg, well below current flu, *itself* a source of strain on ICU beds!)
 
Znakomity system zdrowia publicznego w Singapurze pozwala przypuszczać, że wychwytuje on wysoki procent ich przypadków #koronawirus. A więc 6 przypadków w stanie krytycznym z 72 zdiagnozowanych daje prawdopodobnie jeden z najlepszych do tej pory szacunków zjadliwości #SARSCoV2
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
Is it fair to say that critical cases would be fatal without significant medical intervention?
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
Did you hear about Taiwan News reporting on secondary infection? Possibly worse?
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197 Maybe congrats should be withheld for the time being with testing confirming 15-20% according to this recent revelation. #COVID2019
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
How long is the lag feom diagnosis to critical? I saw something from a Dr in Wuhan saying 2-3 weeks. 3 days ago it was 50 cases and 6 critical, addition of 12 cases has not added critical cases, but that may be due to lag time.
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
Doubling in 6 days
 
8% зараженных #коронавирус’ом Сингапуре в критическом состоянии. Это реальная статистика. А не какие-то сочинения из Китая.
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
Important also to give credit to those @cnalatest that produced the graphics you shared. Data is from Singapore government. Graphics from @cnalatest
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
For an upper bound of CFR, we can also look at the ex-China #s - deaths (3 - 1 in each of Japan, Philippines, France) as a % of the 115 concluded” cases (112 recoveries). This is 2.6%. Presumably it’s lower than that since most countries aren’t catching totally asymptomatic cases
 
Если верить инфографике по заболевшим в Сингапуре, 9% от общего числа инфицированных – в критическом состоянии. Что тревожит.. #коронавирус
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
Another major problem that I can see in respect to the US health system: Who w/o the necessary financial resources would go to a check with just mild symptoms? If people wait too long + work when already sick will increase risk of spreading the virus (vs. single-payer insurance).
 
Singapore is doing a damn fine job.
 
Ok. No deaths yet in Singapore from Cov-19. Bravo Singapore Health Care workers!
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
For how long can this Covid 19 virus stay alive on an inanimate object, eg a doorknob ?
 
 
Looking like exponential growth of cases with a 8% rate of critical cases. An region to watch closely indeed! #coronaviruses #COVID19
 
Hopeful for the developed world #COVIDー19 #COVID19
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
Thank You. We here are doing pretty good work, honestly.
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
Exquisite would be health authorities providing 'total tested' with Daily case numbers, in a representative manner (eg. beyond travel risks and hospitalized). Until Weekly or better local population surveys are being done, #COVID19 stats are mostly trash.
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
I know someone in Singapore (20 y/o) who went to the doctor 2 weeks ago with flu symptoms and was not even tested or considered for testing of the coronavirus. They got better quickly. It may not be related but it's interesting they weren't tested. Are they diagnosing everyone?
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
But given the repeated false negatives from the test in early stages of disease and many pts with minimal symptoms, surely they are missing an unknown fraction. So virulence likely lower than this.
 
I si els casos critics foren tots "exitus", això és al voltant del 8% respecte casos totals. Molt més alt que el #CFR que s'està donant i més baix que el q pronostico jo.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #2019nCoV
 
8% of #COVID19 cases in Singapore are in critical condition.
 
In the light of these numbers, we need to ask how other first world countries will cope with so many critical cases when this disease becomes a pandemic. Let alone the third world...
 
Singapore has one of the best health systems in the world
#COVID19
 
Pray for me y’all
 
Singapore, jossa on ensiluokkainen terveydenhuolto, ei ole onnistunut pysäyttämään kasvua (7-8% joka päivä). Vielä viranomaiset sanovat että tilanne on hallinnassa. Kaupat tyhjeni jo. Jos kasvua ei saada pysähtymään, karanteeni on edessä.

#koronavirus
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
The only good example we really have is the Diamond Princess as we can capture every case there. The only caveat being that it will mostly be elderly people on a cruise so we can't see how it behaves with younger people. Zero deaths as yet from 355 infected.
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
Is it correct to make a reliable estimate on the basis of a really small sample?
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
What has been the global spread of the virus from the conference in the Hyatt in Singapore? Only 3 cases in Singapore but the global picture relating to this one event could be more representative of global infection rates. Requires international data sharing of contacts.
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
why heaping all praises for Singapore ?
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
How does the air quality in Singapore compare to Wuhan?
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
Time lag in emergence of critical conditions, similar to emergence of deaths. Also, there was a point where 8 were in critical condition. Singapore is not transparent with regards to which patients are transitioning in/out of critical care So critical rate might be even higher
 
In reply to @ScottGottliebMD
I read recently that individuals of Asian decent have a higher level of susceptibility to serious cases due to ACE2 protein levels - is there any truth to that? Thanks
 
 
 
The problem with this is the onset to critical takes a week or so... so your 6 critical are from a much smaller pool when there was 40-50 cases...
 
In reply to @CBCNews
@CBCNews Shockingly high figure needing intensive care! Hold our government accountable for their ineptitude!
 
That would imply a scary level of mortality if the virus reaches poorer countries in Asia & Africa. Singapore’s healthcare is among the world’s best and other countries would not be be able to manage the volume as well as the intensity of care required..
 
In reply to @noisediver
Then, a number of researchers point to Singapore's good track record in this outbreak and use their current stats -- 72 diagnosed, 6 in critical condition -- to suggest that this is the most accurate virulence estimate (8% of cases are critical). 4/n
 
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