@jasonfurman | 133,747 followers
The biggest news in this release is large upward revisions in wage growth for September and October and a big number for November.

This is the second time this year we've seen AHE revisions like this dashing the hopes that maybe nominal wages growth was cooling.

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Total of 14 replies and 23 quotes found
זה כנראה הניוז המרכזי והמטריד של דוח התעסוקה החדש של ארה"ב. לא רק שקצב יצירת המשרות לא מראה סימני האטה, השכר לא יורד ואפילו מאיץ. עלה בחודש הקודם בקצב שנתי של למעלה מ-6 אחוזים.
 
In reply to @JustinWolfers
And @jasonfurman is right to emphasize that the uptick in wage growth seen this month is really quite worrying in terms of the future path of inflation.
 
This is the momentum in nominal spending I spoke about earlier this week.

The real economy is still moving fwd.

You don’t get a recession in the near term with these kinds of NFP beats and nominal spending power surging like this.
 
 
In reply to @jasonfurman
Wages tend to lag inflation no? So not too surprising
 
 
In reply to @WHCOS
elites are upset that the working class has higher wages, of course they say NOTHING about record corporate profits, guess it's much easier to force people out of work, than it is to tax excess profits
 
The bond market is carefully cherry-picking the data to arrive at its conclusion a quick pivot and much lower inflation seems likely soon
 
The <jobs>. The <jobs> are the biggest news in this excellent jobs report (twitter.com/JustinWolfers/…). Not the possible contributors to the modestly high inflation that is already coming down (twitter.com/jasonfurman/st…).
 
In reply to @jasonfurman
You know your system is fucked up when wages going up is a bad sign for the economy.
 
Inflação quando pega em salários soh cai com recessão. Noiiis já aprendemos isso. Eles irão aprender infelizmente, que não pode deixar inflação solta, pois custo de abatê-la é enorme!!
 
 
In reply to @jasonfurman
Americans should be poor! Capitalism demands it!
 
 
Wage growth is good, but not if the increased costs keep getting passed on. Eventually something breaks as the Fed keeps raising rates and pulling liquidity.

For most market participants, these economic conditions are new to them. Why I am in cash and trade short time frames.
 
Statements like this tend to get taken out of context in this site, so to clarify, yes, it’s absolutely good for wage earners to earn more, but it has to be a natural growth. Growth due to a tight labor market like this puts too much stress on the economy, particularly small biz.
 
In reply to @jasonfurman
The real wage is lower, the interest rate is high, and the inflation is high🤔The wage-price spiral theory is'nt punctual The (wage+capital income)- price spiral would be correct. The consumers can buy products from their capital income too.=high inflation twitter.com/Nouriel/status…
 
In reply to @INArteCarloDoss
For the visual learners…
 
In reply to @jasonfurman
are these revisions typical?
 
'Sorry too many of you are working, so the fed has to crush the economy.' Anyway, my answer to everything economy-related stays the same: build more housing.
 
Economist’s mad that wages are increasing. The horror.
 
In reply to @Richeydarian
Just to add to the Inflation and Wage growth thingy…. BtW… Turkey’s case is unique.
 
In reply to @jasonfurman
"... response rate for the establishment survey that give us payrolls and wages absolutely crashed in November so a lot more noise in the data" OTOH, 2nd release rate looks good in Oct to me (note I'm not an expert) bls.gov/web/empsit/ces…
 
In reply to @jasonfurman
The #Fed will stay the course for longer than most believe in their controlled economic 'demolition' in order to bring inflation & rates DOWN Rolling $33T in Debt w/o blowing up the system REQUIRES RECESSION & low rates (ex-Fed #QE). We are screwed w/o it.twitter.com/BullivanJohn/s…
 
So much for a less painful Fed rate hike coming up
 
In reply to @IrvingSwisher
@IrvingSwisher would be curious as to your take on this thread:
 
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