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Analysed 25,560 tweets, tweets from the last 284 weeks.
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Last 50 tweets from @JavierBlas
In reply to @JavierBlas
Which weather models, if I may ask?
Replying to @miguelon_pichon
Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble, starting from around Dec 4-5 showing temperatures dropping below the 30-year 'normal'. Currently showing week 49 and week 50 as colder-than-average.
 
In reply to @JavierBlas
How many bears did you slay with your bare hands?
Replying to @deeperdriller
I'm afraid I was the only bear on the slopes.
 
In reply to @JavierBlas
How is the skiing there?
Replying to @SpitiZanskar
I'm, obviously, biased: excellent!
 
More on the winter arriving into Europe: some good snow this morning in the Pyrenees. The photos are from the mountain refuges of Bachimaña, Respomuso and Goriz at around 2,200 meters (and yes, this is shameless promotion of my childhood mountains)
 
It looks like Europe will experience its first winter cold spell starting from around Dec 5, perhaps extending for as long as two weeks, according to weather models. As always with the weather, the forecast may still change | #EnergyCrisis
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
In reply to @SStapczynski
Beijing is turning into a ghost town 🚶 Streets were deserted in what were normally some of the busiest regions, even during rush hour 🚆 Subway ridership fell more than 64% for the week through Wednesday, compared to the same period in 2019, according to a Bloomberg analysis
 
Couple of interesting developments: Vladimir Putin earlier today phoned the prime minister of Iraq to discuss the OPEC+ framework. Hours later, the Iraqi oil minister went to Riyadh for oil talks with Saudi Arabia | #OOTT
Replying to @JavierBlas
Correction to the above: the Iraqi oil minister arrived actually yestersay into Riyadh (although the statement on his visit was issued today by Baghdad).
 
Couple of interesting developments: Vladimir Putin earlier today phoned the prime minister of Iraq to discuss the OPEC+ framework. Hours later, the Iraqi oil minister went to Riyadh for oil talks with Saudi Arabia | #OOTT
The combination of higher Russian oil flows; fast rising Chinese covid cases; European economic slowdown; and macro hedge funds selling their US inflation hedges can only mean one thing for OPEC+ policy debate | #ToCutOrNotToCut #OOTT
 
The UE has failed today to agree on both the European natural gas price cap and the G7 Russian oil price cap | #TickTock #EnergyCrisis
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
No further EU oil price cap talks tonight I understand. Discussions will resume tomorrow instead.
 
With everyone focusing on Ukraine, 2023 could be the year when the US-Iran conflict explodes into open view | #OOTT #Iran 🇮🇷☢️⛽️🇺🇸 nytimes.com/2022/11/24/us/…
 
CHART OF THE DAY comes today via Elements, the daily Bloomberg energy newsletter:

The richest countries will spend 17.7% of their GDP on energy this year, the 2nd-highest share in recorded data, behind only the 17.8% forked out in 1980-81.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @opinion pic.twitter.com/Cur6OPcuLX
Replying to @JavierBlas
Some of you messaged asking about the source of the data, so here's the link to the OECD report: oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/f6da2159… and here's the link to the spreadsheet itself with the data: stat.link/3iejks #EnergyCrisis
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
The G7 oil price cap feels like a Swiss cheese full of holes.....
 
The EU has today failed today to agree on the gas price cap. EU energy ministers will hold another emergency meeting, likely on Dec. 13, to try to break the impasse | #EnergyCrisis #TheCap bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Replying to @JavierBlas
(As I said earlier, the problem is not the price level of the cap, but disagreement on what the cap is meant to do, and its trade-offs. The disagreement about the price is just a sign of a much deeper clash: it's about policy)
 
The EU has today failed today to agree on the gas price cap. EU energy ministers will hold another emergency meeting, likely on Dec. 13, to try to break the impasse | #EnergyCrisis #TheCap bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
 
The combination of higher Russian oil flows; fast rising Chinese covid cases; European economic slowdown; and macro hedge funds selling their US inflation hedges can only mean one thing for OPEC+ policy debate | #ToCutOrNotToCut #OOTT
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
Beijing's Central Business District at 5 pm on a Thursday evening #ZeroCOVID #lockdown
 
The Ofgem price cap isn't meaningless.

The higher the electricity-and-gas price cap goes, the more the government has to spend to subsidize energy and keep its £2,500 per year guarantee (rising to £3,000 from April). And a larger subsidy means more borrowing, and higher taxes.
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
Asian LNG spot prices rose to a seven-week high as winter approaches 🚢📈

💰 JKM rose 20% in the last week to $34/mmbtu
🥶 Supply disruptions and forecasts for cold in Europe risk boosting global competition
🇨🇳 Shell has been bidding for cargoes to China

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
1/2 “In the first half of November, Russian [oil] production rose to a nine-month high of 10.85 mbpd …If that increase holds for the rest of the month Russia will be pumping just 200,000 barrels a day below prewar levels, a decline of less than 2%.”
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
 
In reply to @JavierBlas
Right because we've all been sitting in our shorts with the central heating on full-blast while we wait for the government to tell us what to do.
Replying to @BigBadBank
Can I join your household, please?
 
The problem with the price caps (both EU on gas and G7 on Russian oil) is not the price level -- but rather about what's the objective, and trade-offs.

Agree on objective (and accept trade-offs) and the price level is easy to determine. BUT there's NOT agreement on objectives.
 
Those days, European governments (not just UK) are the Big Shorts in gas and power markets.

In the taxes of your children, some yet to be born.
 
UK energy regulator Ofgem announces the (theoretical) electricity-gas price cap for the Jan-Mar period at an annual level of £4,279. BUT utility bills will remain capped at £2,500 annually until April via gov subsidy.

The calculation does show the huge magnitude of the subisidy.
Replying to @JavierBlas
Note that the British government plans to reduce the subsidy in April, lifting the average household utility bill (on an annual basis) to £3,000. (Yes: your utility bill will INCREASE in April. The European energy crisis is far from over...)
 
UK energy regulator Ofgem announces the (theoretical) electricity-gas price cap for the Jan-Mar period at an annual level of £4,279. BUT utility bills will remain capped at £2,500 annually until April via gov subsidy.

The calculation does show the huge magnitude of the subisidy.
 
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
Trafigura is buying a ~1.5% stake in Korea Zinc, a tie-up between two of the world's top zinc producers as they discuss a joint nickel refining project

Full story for Bloomberg subscribers @megacontango

blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/R…
 
COLUMN: What’s going on with global energy and climate change diplomacy behind the scenes?

Whatever is said in public, the energy crisis is forcing governments to reconsider their priorities: sustainability is down and security is up.

#COP27 via @opinion bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Energy Security Ousts Climate Change in 2023
bloomberg.com
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
BREAKING: China’s daily Covid cases climb to a record high, as officials across the country revert to mass testing and movement restrictions trib.al/iZtOnVw
GIF
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
Diplomatic source tells me this conversation paraphrased just happened in EU ambos meeting on oil price cap. Polish Ambo: The $65-$70 price per barrel is too high. We can't agree to this. Malta Ambo: We can't accept any price cap below $70. #GoingWell #PriceCap
 
In reply to @JavierBlas
I think it is a smart choice. It is a long-term strategy anyway, it doesn't make a big difference if the cap bites on January or March. First you get the infrastructure of the cap working while not incentivizing supply reduction by Russia. Then you tighten the screws (lower cap).
Replying to @jakluge
I think there's one place where it makes a difference whether it bites in January or March. It's called Ukraine. Of course, that's if the cap is about defunding Putin, deterring him, and trying to end the war. If they are about weakening EU oil sanctions, then that's fine.
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
Russian missile strikes on #Ukraine's energy infrastructure have caused another massive power outage across #Moldova.

I just had a call with @AndreiSpinu, the deputy prime minister of 🇲🇩, to discuss the situation, our cooperation & other urgent issues.
 
If the G7 price cap on Russian oil is ultimately set at $65-$70 a barrel (as the leaks suggest), one has to wonder how G7 member Canada is coping.

The benchmark Western Canadian Select crude sells currently for ~$51 a barrel. Maybe Trudeau is in more trouble than Putin? #OOTT
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
"If you look at the price they're thinking about for oil price caps, it's essentially what Russia is getting now," says @CroftHelima. "Price caps are not a measure to reduce Russian revenue, but a way to keep Russian oil on the market. You are not defunding Vladimir Putin."
 
CHART OF THE DAY comes today via Elements, the daily Bloomberg energy newsletter:

The richest countries will spend 17.7% of their GDP on energy this year, the 2nd-highest share in recorded data, behind only the 17.8% forked out in 1980-81.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @opinion
 
From Elements, the daily Bloomberg energy newsletter:

"Just days before the US and Europe impose fresh sanctions on Russian energy — supposedly the strongest thus far — Moscow has lifted its oil output to the highest level since its invasion of Ukraine"
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Putin Defies Sanctions With Oil Output Hike
bloomberg.com
 
In reply to @JavierBlas
I'm the first to say the cap should be MUCH lower. But there's a silver lining. Putin said he won't supply those participating in the cap. So some supply response may come. If that happens, oil prices will rise and the cap will bind. His supply cuts will NOT make him more money.
Replying to @RobinBrooksIIF
I'm afraid that the idea that Putin suffers -- or somehow, is deterred or defunded -- with an oil price cap at ~$70 a barrel for Russian crude with Russian total oil production averaging >11m b/d in 2022 requires a big leap of faith. Or drinking lots of vodka. Or both.
 
In reply to @JavierBlas
@JavierBlas Why has the Brent dropped dramatically just now? Can you explain? Thanks from all #oott aficionados learning from you through Twitter
Replying to @MairSok
The EU proposal for the G7 Russian oil price cap is very high, so that's going to keep more Russian oil into the market than (some) expected. More supply means lower oil prices.
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
Several EU diplomats said the proposed level was too high. The cap needs the backing of all member states to be approved.
#oott #Russia
 
Russian crude Urals is trading at a discount of >$20 per barrel to Brent. That means that, currently, Urals sells, give or take, for $66-$68.

After painful and long negotiations, the G7 is considering a price cap for Russian oil at $65-$70.

Another cap that doesn't cap. #OOTT
Replying to @JavierBlas
(And this is the beauty of the G7 oil price cap: it doesn't cap Russian oil flows -- as the US wants more oil into the market --, and it doesn't, really, cap the flow of petro-dollars to the Kremlin, either. Everyone can claim victory; other than the Ukrainians, that's it) #OOTT
 
Russian crude Urals is trading at a discount of >$20 per barrel to Brent. That means that, currently, Urals sells, give or take, for $66-$68.

After painful and long negotiations, the G7 is considering a price cap for Russian oil at $65-$70.

Another cap that doesn't cap. #OOTT
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
Two deals accounting for 208mt of #LNG (292bcm of #natgas) struck in three days. And still not a European buyer in sight….
Ambiguity over #TTF pricing really not helping dudes…
🤦‍♂️
 
And months later, the official confirmation:

The US Treasury has caved to Japanese pressure and exempted crude exports from Russia's Sakhalin-2 project from the G7 oil price cap until September 2023 (but only when the oil is exported to Japan) #OOTT #MoreHolesThanASwissCheese
According to a report by Kyodo News, oil from the Sakhalin 2 project is not subject to the G7 Russian oil price cap, says a Japanese official

(... so, the price cap on my local pub doesn't apply to Asahi beer...)
 
In reply to @JavierBlas
more importantly, in order for it to be a cap, it also must be more than 58 eur/mwh ‘TTF spot EGSI’ from EEX minus the average of North-western EU and 2 South-W EU LNG spot price assessment from Platts, hence if the shock comes from the LNG space, the TTF cap will be invalid
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
Pretty significant and surprising move. 90,000 b/d project, Shell's biggest outstanding FID in Brazil and one of the "low-hanging fruit" (low breakeven, established basin) in the international sanctioning queue.
 
The European Commission has unveiled its natural gas price cap proposal. It is, how to put it, a curious one.

The cap is set at €275 per MWh. But, and THIS IS THE IMPORTANT BIT, that price will need to be breached for two consecutive weeks.

So it's a cap designed not to cap.
Replying to @JavierBlas
Even at the peak of the EU gas price crisis in August, when prices briefly hit an all-time high of €342 per MWh, they didn't stay above the €275 per MWh for two consecutive weeks. So the cap would not have been activated. We now have a cap that doesn't cap. A Brussels cap.
 
The European Commission has unveiled its natural gas price cap proposal. It is, how to put it, a curious one.

The cap is set at €275 per MWh. But, and THIS IS THE IMPORTANT BIT, that price will need to be breached for two consecutive weeks.

So it's a cap designed not to cap.
 
Ghawar > Vaca Muerta
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
EU sanctions on Russian oil take effect Dec. 5, but one major importer still hasn't said where it's going to get supplies after then, writes @JLeeEnergy trib.al/uoN26sr
TheCountry Withouta Backup Plan forRussian Oil Sanctions
bloomberg.com
 
Javier Blas Retweeted ·  
Russia may cut natural gas supply via Ukraine from next week 🇷🇺🇺🇦

🚨 The Ukraine pipeline is important because it's basically the last functioning Russia gas supply route to Europe
🇲🇩 Gazprom said some gas meant for Moldova is being held in Ukraine, so it may need to curb supply
 
 
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