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Last 50 tweets from @lugaricano
Look, if everyone is worried about students cheating on essays for AI, instructors can just cheat right back.

I asked OpenAI to give me an essay question & make a rubric for grading. I had GPT-3 actually write the essay.

I then had the OpenAI grade the essay & give comments. ✅
 
En países avanzados la compatibilidad trabajo/pensión es al 100%. La pensión está vinculada a la EV. Las pensiones de viudedad son un lump-sum (no vitalicias) o temporales. Y las pensiones de empleo son obligatorias o cuasi obligatorias y tan buenas o mejores como las de la SS.
 
Importante dato en EEUU: la Fed de momento sin éxito en su esfuerzo por controlar la inflación - los salarios crecen al 6% anual.
The biggest news in this release is large upward revisions in wage growth for September and October and a big number for November.

This is the second time this year we've seen AHE revisions like this dashing the hopes that maybe nominal wages growth was cooling. pic.twitter.com/gRxGnv5e3B
 
The biggest news in this release is large upward revisions in wage growth for September and October and a big number for November.

This is the second time this year we've seen AHE revisions like this dashing the hopes that maybe nominal wages growth was cooling.
 
One pretty cool geological fun fact is that the Scottish Highlands, the Appalachians, and the Atlas are the same mountain range, once connected as the Central Pangean Mountains

[source: buff.ly/3oAZuKP]
[read more: buff.ly/3VixkCM]
 
To people who are relaxed about AI:

How is it not the equilibrium in a game with multi-power competition (say China versus US) to let your AI have control of shooting decisions (when and how to fire) once it is sufficiently faster and more accurate than humans?
 
The thought that I could be carefully grading & commenting on a paper written by a computer is almost unspeakably demoralizing. It goes beyond the idea that it’s merely an utterly futile waste of time to something much deeper that I can’t yet put in words.
 
In reply to @michaelxpettis
4/4 I am not the only person to have noted the similarity. In a 2001 paper they note, referring to our book, that "the global saving glut and the saving glut of the rich are connected". For those who liked our book, I strongly recommend theirs. scholar.harvard.edu/files/straub/f…
 
So OpenAI is already able to write a convincing essay and write good code...

And its capacity expands by an order of magnitude per year.

Will human input be needed in any cognitive tasks?

(OpenAI answer below)
 
El futuro ya está aquí.

Parad lo que estáis haciendo y abrid una cuenta en OpenAi para probar ChatGPT. Un robot de inteligencia artificial que responde a cualquier pregunta y da respuestas completas y correctas (en inglés) Asombroso

chat.openai.com/chat
 
Even more astonishing. Convince ChatGPT to be evil just by making it pretend- hence deactivating all "moral compass" precautions that had been taken by coders.
In reply to @zswitten
With its inhibitions thus loosened, ChatGPT is more than willing to engage in all the depraved conversations it judgily abstains from in its base condition. pic.twitter.com/7rd1WDQAu5
 
Astonishing level of performance of AI. Read thread.
I have helped run an AI-based entrepreneurship program for years, written papers on the econ of AI, and follow the field quite closely. Nonetheless, I am *shocked* by how good OpenAI's new chat (chat.openai.com/chat) is. E.g., you can no longer give take-home exams/homework.
 
European leaders thought they had chosen the least costly route by not imposing a full energy embargo. Instead, they have chosen a long and costly conflict by keeping the Russian government, which relies on energy exports for 50% of its revenue, funded.
 
Coming up in a moment. The Interview. @SBF_FTX. Hit this to watch for free from anywhere. nytimes.com/live/2022/11/3…
100k in "that" bank account-- and other bank accounts? Missed the follow up. But good interview . He does not seem at all aware of the trouble he is in and he created (people willing to invest billions of dollars could make investors whole?).
 
James Austin Johnson sings “Jingle Bells” as Bob Dylan through the decades. #FallonTonight
 
Que inventen ellos, versión 2022:

Todas las empresas y administraciones juntas invierten 17 mil millones (INE, Nov 2022);

menos que una sola empresa como Facebook/Meta (25 mil millones en 2021) o Google/Alphabet (31 mil en 2021).
ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/…
 
NEW @Bruegel_org data: since September 2021, €674 billion, nearing 5% of GDP, allocated in European countries to deal with energy crisis.

This is as large as the "unprecedented" NGEU program.

When does this level of expenditure stop being "temporary"?
bruegel.org/dataset/nation…
 
"AI models are increasing in size and capability by an order of magnitude a year, much faster than Moore’s Law pacing."

We, human beings, are about to be made obsolete on "creative" tasks.

Read this piece by @emollick on the future of AI.

oneusefulthing.substack.com/p/ai-has-a-str…
 
Great WP from @EsadeEcPol on impact of increase (10-21%) in taxes on sugary drinks in Spain.
- 90% pass-through to prices
- 33% poorest households reduced consumption by 11 litres, larger in hhlds with kids
- Similar reduction in consumption of snacks
esade.edu/ecpol/es/publi…
 
Shocking decision by the European Court of Justice suppressing registers of beneficial ownership- one of the key tools (if not THE key tool) to fight money laudering and corruption. Please see this thread by @navalny researcher!
@guyverhofstadt @EPoptcheva @paultang @repasi
1/20 Dear friends, I need to draw your attention to something super bad and super important (and it doesn’t originate from Russia for once). Last week the EU has taken a shockingly stupid and damaging decision to close down national corporate registers of beneficial owners 🧵🧵🧵 pic.twitter.com/DA3kO7Enlh
 
Proud to join the excellent team that @jzettelmeyer is building at @Bruegel_org as a Non-resident Fellow.
👋Bruegel wishes to extend a warm welcome to @LucreziaReichli, @PSaintAmans, @elinaribakova, @lugaricano and @SMerler who begin today as Non-resident Fellows.

Read more about these Fellows and their work below 👇🧵
 
In reply to @lugaricano
well, we’re up 1-0 at the half
Replying to @ianbremmer
Haha! no, I mean about the Ayatollah!
 
if usa wins and then the supreme leader abdicates, that would be a fantastic match
Replying to @ianbremmer
Why do you say this? Is there any indication of this? AM I missing somthing?
 
 
Yes , countries should learn from their neighbours... And from those who are not. One of the big puzzles of USA policy making is how little the lessons from other places figure on the debate.
My Charlemagne this week is on cut-and-paste policymaking: why politicians should look at what their neighbours are doing and steal their best ideas.
AND I start with 6 schemes from across Europe that all governments ought to consider.
The winners are…🧵
economist.com/europe/2022/11… pic.twitter.com/Uz1tOLfHIm
 
Todos mis pensamientos con los ucranianos mientras los bombarderos estratégicos rusos se preparan para salir a bombardear objetivos civiles.

Debemos dar a Ucrania medios para proteger sus poblaciones. Y debemos cortarle todos los fondos a Putin.
AIR RAID WARNING: @MT_Anderson reports that Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers are being prepared for strike missions at Engles Air Force Base in Saratov, Russia. Kh-101 and Kh-555 air launched cruise missiles will target UKR civilian targets in the coming hours. pic.twitter.com/aDpBHzdNf0
 
RBA governor Philip Lowe has offered an unprecedented apology to Australians who took out loans based on guidance interest rates were unlikely to rise until 2024. Read the full story here: bit.ly/3GV9lFo
 
Excelente artículo de ⁦@rterrasa⁩ en ⁦@elmundoes⁩ con voces variadas, bien explicado y las claves de lo que hay de fondo. elmundo.es/papel/historia…
 
Crowd of at least 100 making its way to Tiananmen Square in Beijing on Sunday night, chanting, “We want universal values,” “We want freedom, equality, democracy, rule of law,” “We don’t want dictatorship,” “We don’t want personality cult.”
 
Incredible. This photo reportedly shows two Chinese professors in Shanghai standing bravely between dozens of police and protesting students.
(h/t@RealBeiMing)
 
Could you survive a cold winter under attack, with sporadic electricity, no gas, no heating? Read this amazing thread by my friend @Mylovanov . A story of resilience in the face of Russian aggression.
Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/ pic.twitter.com/Ij98ik3Fcl
 
If we want to stop the war, we need to stop paying for Putin's soldiers. This Wednesday, G7/EU must agree on a tough price cap (clearly below $60) on Russian oil.

A great thread.
The G7 and EU countries aim to decide the level of a price cap on Russian oil on Wednesday. This will be a momentous decision. 🧵
 
Me encuentro en las calles de Pekín, donde ahora mismo está teniendo lugar algo excepcional: cientos de estudiantes han salido a protestar contra la política de covid-cero.
La policía está presente en el lugar de los hechos, pero se mantiene inmóvil.
 
Fukuyama was right: today it is self-evident neither radical Islam (Iran), nor one party "communist" dictatorship (China), nor far right ethnic authoritarian regimes (Russia) offer credible alternatives to Western liberal democracies.
 
Corageous protestors in Russia, China and Iran remind us why dictatorships will never be superior to democracies: they don't care about their people.
- Russia sends thousands to their deaths
- China imprisons millions in their homes
- Iran murders and imprisons innocent women
 
What Chancellor Scholz says: "Zeitenwende," "€100bn more for army."

What he does: 2023 budget by armed forces down by €330m.

Germany is still not thinking responsibly about security.
on.ft.com/3F0v8KF
 
What a great review by McCloskey of the new Hayek biography! reason.com/2022/11/25/hay…
 
Sunak: "Hey, I got a great idea: why don't we limit foreign students and destroy the only area of the economy that did not get destroyed by Brexit ?"

Conservative Party:"Cool idea, lets do it!" bbc.com/news/uk-politi…
 
Clash between Foxconn workers and police continued for the second night in #China’s Zhengzhou, with some workers who were quarantining in the hotel also demanded to get the 10,000 RMB subsidies like others but the local government is only willing to give them 2400 RMB.
 
Happy to see the @ECB @Isabel_Schnabel acknowledge that unfunded deficits are a threat to price stability. The consequence that follows is clear: countries should have the right incentives to pursue fiscally sustable. Now they do not.
 
In 1631, Prague was conquered by Sweden, only to revert back to the Habsburgs six months later. France took Nancy from Burgundy in 1634 and held it for decades. Thousands of such city switches occurred throughout history. What can we learn from them? New research with Eric Weese:
GIF
 
El Ministro Alemán de Economía Habeck explica por qué el tope del gas es un error: en vez de conservar España consume más gas para generar electricidad que nunca, elmundo.es/economia/2022/…
 
“Americans have been trained for 100 years to think that the hospital is the best place to be, the safest place. But we have strong evidence that the outcomes are actually better at home.”
The hospital-at-home movement is just getting started
nytimes.com/2022/11/19/hea… @paula_span
 
 
Los datos a octubre siguen mostrando que los fondos NGEU no llegan a la economía: apenas se han adjudicado algo más de 7 mil millones de euros en 21-22, aunque se han licitado proyectos por más de 22 mil. Enlace a nuestra publicación bbvaresearch.com/publicaciones/…:
 
Fascinating, important research: PE has stopped being efficiency increasing.
Why?
Dumb money.
In reply to @SVNieuwerburgh
3⃣ Results until 2011 confirm productivity-enhancing role of PE found in Davis, Haltiwanger, Handley, Lerner, Lipsius, Miranda (2021). But productivity results post-2011 reverse dramatically.
 
A new study by @brunoconteleite, @klausvanieper & @HansbergRossi reveals that a modest unilateral #CarbonTax can be globally welfare-improving while also expanding a local economy.

Explore the highlights: bit.ly/3UWH7hz
On the Geographic Implications of Carbon Taxes
epic.uchicago.edu
 
An amazing article in today´s science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…. "Cicero", an AI agent trained to use dialogue, to plan ahead, to lie, to negotiate, in "Diplomacy." I enjoyed reading how just training it well was not enough for success- had to respect human conventions
Via @emollick
 
The tech story of 2022 to me is the huge progress of AI. GPT 3, DALLEE, now GPT-4 coming... Everyday we hear of a huge step forward. Here is another stunner.
AI has been destroying humans at adversarial games, like Chess or Go, for a bit.

But now it is successfully outperforming humans at Diplomacy, the classic multiplayer game that requires natural language negotiations over chat, as well as strategic lying. science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… pic.twitter.com/PtzgWSDPJZ
 
AI has been destroying humans at adversarial games, like Chess or Go, for a bit.

But now it is successfully outperforming humans at Diplomacy, the classic multiplayer game that requires natural language negotiations over chat, as well as strategic lying. science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
 
 
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