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Last 50 tweets from @OBR_UK
Are you looking for a challenging new role?

We're seeking a Senior Analyst to broaden our analysis and communication of fiscal issues and support coordination across our fiscal teams.

Apply now for this exciting, brand new role
Closing 7 Feb
obr.uk/vacancies

#econjobs
 
In reply to @OBR_UK
And this morning Richard Hughes and Andy King gave evidence to the Welsh Finance Committee on the Welsh taxes forecast we published in December. Catch up on Senedd TV senedd.tv/Meeting/Clip/3…
Replying to @OBR_UK
Find out more about our engagement with the governments of Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland and the devolved taxes and spending forecasts we produce: obr.uk/topics/scotlan…
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland - Office for Budget Responsibility
obr.uk
 
Did you know that alongside providing evidence to the UK Parliament, we also support the Budget process in the devolved nations.

The BRC appeared last month at the Scottish Finance and Public Administration Committee.

Watch the clip
scottishparliament.tv/meeting/financ…
Replying to @OBR_UK
And this morning Richard Hughes and Andy King gave evidence to the Welsh Finance Committee on the Welsh taxes forecast we published in December. Catch up on Senedd TV senedd.tv/Meeting/Clip/3…
Finance Committee
senedd.tv
 
Did you know that alongside providing evidence to the UK Parliament, we also support the Budget process in the devolved nations.

The BRC appeared last month at the Scottish Finance and Public Administration Committee.

Watch the clip
scottishparliament.tv/meeting/financ…
Finance and Public Administration Committee | Scottish Parliament TV
scottishparliament.tv
 
Thanks to a request for additional information since our October 2021 EFO, we have now published a supplementary release on the impact of policy changes on the number of taxpayers by band: obr.uk/supplementary-…
 
Since our October 2021 EFO we have received a request for further detail on the impact of policy changes on the number of taxpayers by band. In line with our release policy, we will publish this new information on our website at 11am tomorrow.
 
Are you looking for an exciting, ambitious new role, offering the opportunity to work across a wide range of economic and fiscal issues?

Apply now to be a Fiscal Analyst at the OBR
3 posts available
Closing 23 January

obr.uk/vacancies

#econjobs
 
The Chancellor has set the date for the Spring 2022 forecast: Wednesday 23 March

That day we will update our outlook for the economy and public finances.
 
Budget deficit continues to fall sharply – read the latest commentary at obr.uk/monthly-public…
 
The first outturn data for Welsh rates of income tax was published in the summer. How did our forecasts fare? Forecast errors have narrowed over time. We initially overestimated the Welsh share of UK-wide revenues, then more recently underestimated the UK income receipts. pic.twitter.com/H5XyQXd3NX
Replying to @OBR_UK
Cyhoeddwyd y data alldro cyntaf ar gyfer cyfraddau treth incwm Cymru yn yr haf. Sut wnaeth ein rhagolygon ymdopi? I ddechrau, fe wnaethom oramcangyfrif cyfran Cymru o refeniw ledled y DU, yna tanamcangyfrifwyd derbyniadau incwm y DU yn fwy diweddar.
 
The first outturn data for Welsh rates of income tax was published in the summer. How did our forecasts fare? Forecast errors have narrowed over time. We initially overestimated the Welsh share of UK-wide revenues, then more recently underestimated the UK income receipts.
 
Pandemic-induced shifts in the price distribution of property transactions have boosted revenues. Transactions growth has been stronger in the higher – more tax-rich – price bands.

Will this last? Our forecast assumes it’s temporary, but that’s very uncertain. pic.twitter.com/p5hqDNGB8h
Replying to @OBR_UK
Mae newidiadau pandemig yn nosbarthiad prisiau trafodiadau eiddo wedi rhoi hwb i refeniw. Mae twf trafodiadau wedi bod yn gryfach yn y bandiau prisiau uwch sy’n fwy cyfoethog o ran treth A fydd hyn yn parhau? Mae ein rhagolwg yn tybio ei fod dros dro, ond mae hynny'n ansicr iawn
 
Pandemic-induced shifts in the price distribution of property transactions have boosted revenues. Transactions growth has been stronger in the higher – more tax-rich – price bands.

Will this last? Our forecast assumes it’s temporary, but that’s very uncertain.
 
In our latest Welsh taxes outlook, commissioned by the @WelshGovernment, we have revised up our forecasts for Welsh taxes thanks to the stronger recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Report published today obr.uk/welsh-taxes-ou… pic.twitter.com/yH6auW6ioI
Replying to @OBR_UK
Yn ein rhagolwg trethi Cymru diweddaraf, a gomisiynwyd gan Lywodraeth Cymru, rydym wedi diwygio ein rhagolygon ar gyfer trethi Cymru diolch i'r adferiad cryfach o'r pandemig coronafeirws. Adroddiad wedi'i gyhoeddi heddiw obr.uk/rhagolwg-treth…
 
In our latest Welsh taxes outlook, commissioned by the @WelshGovernment, we have revised up our forecasts for Welsh taxes thanks to the stronger recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Report published today obr.uk/welsh-taxes-ou…
 
The @CommonsTreasury has today confirmed the appointment of Prof. David Miles to the Budget Responsibility Committee.

We all look forward to welcoming David to the OBR in January.

obr.uk/prof-david-mil… pic.twitter.com/GsXGXXa1cB
Replying to @OBR_UK
We thank Prof Sir Charlie Bean for his service on the Committee. His expertise, wisdom, and support have been invaluable to the OBR over the last five eventful years. We have been extraordinarily fortunate to have been waypoint on his 40-year journey in public service.
 
The @CommonsTreasury has today confirmed the appointment of Prof. David Miles to the Budget Responsibility Committee.

We all look forward to welcoming David to the OBR in January.

obr.uk/prof-david-mil…
 
#ICYMI Prof David Miles appeared at the @CommonsTreasury yesterday for his consent hearing to join the Budget Responsibility Committee

Watch the session here on ParliamentTV: parliamentlive.tv/event/index/f4…
Parliamentlive.tv
parliamentlive.tv
🗣️On Wednesday we’re holding a consent hearing with Professor David Miles, the Government’s preferred candidate to join the @OBR_UK Budget Responsibility Committee.

Watch the session live from 2.15pm👇
parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/f4… pic.twitter.com/rcomb6MHBl
 
Have your say!
We want to hear your thoughts on the Economic and fiscal outlook – our Budget day document – so we can ensure our work meets your needs.
surveymonkey.co.uk/r/K2JBXWH
OBR survey: Economic and fiscal outlook
surveymonkey.co.uk
 
In reply to @OBR_UK
New methodology for illustrating the uncertainty around our central forecast means we can better capture the history of shocks to the economy & public finances & provide a fuller assessment of the probability of the Govt meeting its fiscal targets obr.uk/download/worki… pic.twitter.com/ypybClYkcc
Replying to @OBR_UK
We have also updated our tax and spending ‘ready reckoners’ that show how the public finances could be affected by changes in selected economic determinants of our fiscal forecast. obr.uk/download/octob…
 
In reply to @OBR_UK
Today we have also published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2021-22 consistent with our October 2021 fiscal forecast. These provide a reference point against which to monitor incoming data: obr.uk/download/octob…
Replying to @OBR_UK
New methodology for illustrating the uncertainty around our central forecast means we can better capture the history of shocks to the economy & public finances & provide a fuller assessment of the probability of the Govt meeting its fiscal targets obr.uk/download/worki…
 
In reply to @OBR_UK
So how does our forecast accuracy compare with the pre-OBR Treasury forecasts after these huge pandemic-related errors? The OBR still has a significantly lower median forecast error for GDP and borrowing, but our mean errors are now closer given the scale of the pandemic shock. pic.twitter.com/wTJulZmN4B
Replying to @OBR_UK
Today we have also published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2021-22 consistent with our October 2021 fiscal forecast. These provide a reference point against which to monitor incoming data: obr.uk/download/octob…
 
In reply to @OBR_UK
The pandemic led to the largest year-ahead borrowing forecast error on record of 12.5% of GDP, or £268bn, against our March 2020 forecast. More than ¾ of this error is explained by pandemic-related government spending with the remainder from lower receipts. pic.twitter.com/vCLeG8wuQV
Replying to @OBR_UK
So how does our forecast accuracy compare with the pre-OBR Treasury forecasts after these huge pandemic-related errors? The OBR still has a significantly lower median forecast error for GDP and borrowing, but our mean errors are now closer given the scale of the pandemic shock.
 
In reply to @OBR_UK
Back in March 2020, before the global reach of the pandemic became apparent, our forecast assumed only a 0.1% hit to GDP in 2020. Very far from the actual hit of c.10%. After that, we were quick to realise its severity, but were consistently too pessimistic relative to others. pic.twitter.com/DuvzhoQ5O0
Replying to @OBR_UK
The pandemic led to the largest year-ahead borrowing forecast error on record of 12.5% of GDP, or £268bn, against our March 2020 forecast. More than ¾ of this error is explained by pandemic-related government spending with the remainder from lower receipts.
 
The pandemic delivered one of the largest peacetime shocks to the UK economy in history and the largest forecast errors on record.

Our Forecast evaluation report, which reviews our forecasts over the first year of the pandemic, has just been published.

obr.uk/fer/forecast-e… pic.twitter.com/2ItlFsju8S
Replying to @OBR_UK
Back in March 2020, before the global reach of the pandemic became apparent, our forecast assumed only a 0.1% hit to GDP in 2020. Very far from the actual hit of c.10%. After that, we were quick to realise its severity, but were consistently too pessimistic relative to others.
 
The pandemic delivered one of the largest peacetime shocks to the UK economy in history and the largest forecast errors on record.

Our Forecast evaluation report, which reviews our forecasts over the first year of the pandemic, has just been published.

obr.uk/fer/forecast-e…
 
New Forecast evaluation report published 11am today. Follow us for highlights 📊
The pandemic has, not surprisingly, made it even harder to predict the future.

But how has the changing course of the pandemic affected our forecasts and are there any lessons we can learn as forecasters?

Report published 11am Thur 📔 pic.twitter.com/l6gfLhZQm1
 
Tomorrow at 11am, we’re also publishing:
- monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2021-22 consistent with our Oct 2021 EFO
- updated ready reckoners
- a working paper on how to improve the representation of uncertainty around our central forecasts
 
The pandemic has, not surprisingly, made it even harder to predict the future.

But how has the changing course of the pandemic affected our forecasts and are there any lessons we can learn as forecasters?

Report published 11am Thur 📔
 
We’re starting our budget scrutiny this week when we hear from @OBR_UK and @TheIFS on the UK context ahead of publication of the Scottish Budget. Tune in on SPTV from 9.15 am tomorrow morning: ow.ly/NvJi50H4bgi
 
The Chancellor has nominated Prof. David Miles (former MPC member at the BoE) to join the Budget Responsibility Committee.

If the @CommonsTreasury approve, he will replace Prof. Sir Charlie Bean.

obr.uk/prof-david-mil…
 
Ever wondered how the Budget timetable is agreed?

The OBR non-execs have reviewed this decision-making process between the OBR and HM Treasury.

Their letter on the October Budget and accompanying review are available on our website.

obr.uk/non-executive-… pic.twitter.com/zHlDOhi2NL
Replying to @OBR_UK
Their findings will also inform the forthcoming review of our Memorandum of Understanding between the OBR, HMT, DWP and HMRC. For the first time, we are now seeking your input.
 
Ever wondered how the Budget timetable is agreed?

The OBR non-execs have reviewed this decision-making process between the OBR and HM Treasury.

Their letter on the October Budget and accompanying review are available on our website.

obr.uk/non-executive-…
 
What does the OBR and Treasury consider when agreeing a Budget timetable, and why was the October Budget different?

We asked our non-execs to review this decision-making process and will publish their findings on obr.uk at 11am tomorrow.

obr.uk/non-executive-…
Non-executive members review the Budget timetable decision-making process - Office for Budget Responsibility
obr.uk
 
Are you interested in working on economic forecasting and analysis, and looking for a role with high profile responsibilities?

Apply now to be an Assistant Economist at the OBR
Closing 5 Dec
obr.uk/vacancies

#econtwitter #econjobs
 
The pandemic brought about the largest shock to the economy and public finances since the OBR was established.

Our latest Forecast evaluation report, due to be published 11am on 9 Dec, will look at its impact on our forecasts over 2020-21 and what we can learn for future shocks.
 
Budget deficit down over £100 billion so far in 2021-22 – read the latest commentary at obr.uk/monthly-public…
 
Are you looking for a challenging role in public expenditure forecasting and analysis?

If so, we’d love to hear from you.

Apply by 28 November.

obr.uk/vacancies/

#econjobs
 
#ICYMI What risks does #climatechange pose for government finances? OBR analysts Rachel and Tom explain some of these risks discussed in our July Fiscal risks report.

We also provided an update on climate change-related measures announced in the latest Budget in last week's EFO.
 
In reply to @OBR_UK
The hearing moves on to Brexit. Since the referendum, we have assumed trade intensity would eventually be 15% lower vs staying in EU. Since trade regime changed in Jan: exports to EU down 10% & imports frm EU down 15% on pre-Brexit levels but non-EU trade is back at those levels. pic.twitter.com/jFobUHXW2w
Replying to @OBR_UK
At @CommonsTreasury hearing, Andy King explains our analysis on Net Zero Spending policies announced in the #Budget2021 and #SpendingReview, in the context of the scenarios for getting to net zero set out in our 2021 Fiscal risks report. More in Box 3.3: obr.uk/box/climate-re…
 
In reply to @OBR_UK
Richard Hughes explains our latest scarring assumption at @CommonsTreasury hearing. Over the medium term we now expect post-pandemic scarring of supply potential to be 2% – down from the 3% we assumed in March. pic.twitter.com/gilfe7RLVZ
Replying to @OBR_UK
The hearing moves on to Brexit. Since the referendum, we have assumed trade intensity would eventually be 15% lower vs staying in EU. Since trade regime changed in Jan: exports to EU down 10% & imports frm EU down 15% on pre-Brexit levels but non-EU trade is back at those levels.
 
In reply to @OBR_UK
and in Box 3.2 we then studied the fiscal consequences of these scenarios. Both have adverse short-term effects, but wage-driven inflation (the labour market scenario) becomes fiscally beneficial over the medium term. obr.uk/box/higher-inf… pic.twitter.com/3RN8xzqsc7
Replying to @OBR_UK
Richard Hughes explains our latest scarring assumption at @CommonsTreasury hearing. Over the medium term we now expect post-pandemic scarring of supply potential to be 2% – down from the 3% we assumed in March.
 
In reply to @OBR_UK
Prof. Sir Charlie Bean explains how we've considered the impact of even higher inflation on our forecast. In Box 2.6, we explored two scenarios that result in higher and more persistent inflation, but with different drivers: product vs labour markets. obr.uk/box/the-econom… pic.twitter.com/MYASCQU6WV
Replying to @OBR_UK
and in Box 3.2 we then studied the fiscal consequences of these scenarios. Both have adverse short-term effects, but wage-driven inflation (the labour market scenario) becomes fiscally beneficial over the medium term. obr.uk/box/higher-inf…
 
In reply to @OBR_UK
At @TreasuryCommons hearing, @MelJStride asks Richard Hughes how much headroom the Chancellor has against meeting his new fiscal rules. Vs the last decade, he has the second lowest margin any Chancellor has given himself. pic.twitter.com/AeiUfVse4v
Replying to @OBR_UK
Prof. Sir Charlie Bean explains how we've considered the impact of even higher inflation on our forecast. In Box 2.6, we explored two scenarios that result in higher and more persistent inflation, but with different drivers: product vs labour markets. obr.uk/box/the-econom…
 
Replying to @OBR_UK
At @TreasuryCommons hearing, @MelJStride asks Richard Hughes how much headroom the Chancellor has against meeting his new fiscal rules. Vs the last decade, he has the second lowest margin any Chancellor has given himself.
 
 
In 15 minutes the Budget Responsibility Committee will be giving evidence to @CommonsTreasury on the #Budget2021 and #SpendingReview

Watch live from 11:05 on parliamentlive.tv/Guide
🔎On Monday 1 November we will be examining the #Budget2021 and #SpendingReview.

🗣️In our first session on the topic, we'll be hearing from @OBR_UK experts, who scrutinise the Chancellor's tax and spending measures.

📺Watch live from 11:05am parliamentlive.tv/Guide pic.twitter.com/tdUgWlt1e1
 
#ICYMI, inflation is expected to reach 4.4% next year but surging energy prices mean it may peak even higher. In Box 2.6, we explored two scenarios that result in higher and more persistent inflation, but with different drivers: product vs labour markets.

obr.uk/box/the-econom… pic.twitter.com/xouIMJDsSj
Replying to @OBR_UK
#ICYMI, in Box 3.2 we then studied the fiscal consequences of these scenarios. Both have adverse short-term effects, but wage-driven inflation (the labour market scenario) becomes fiscally beneficial over the medium term. obr.uk/box/higher-inf…
 
#ICYMI, inflation is expected to reach 4.4% next year but surging energy prices mean it may peak even higher. In Box 2.6, we explored two scenarios that result in higher and more persistent inflation, but with different drivers: product vs labour markets.

obr.uk/box/the-econom…
 
#ICYMI Richard Hughes spoke on @BBCr4today this morning to discuss why we expect inflation to peak above 4% next year and the impact on household finances

⏩16:40
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0…
 
 
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