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Last 50 tweets from @Redistrict
My best guess: Brad Finstad (R) ends up winning #MN01 (Trump +10) by just 51%-47% or so when the final four counties finish reporting.

That would be remarkably consistent with the June 28 #NE01 special, when Mike Flood (R) won a Trump +11 seat by just 53%-47%.
 
There are four counties left to report in #MN01: Brown, Houston, Martin and Olmsted. Overall, they were tied between Biden/Trump in 2020, vs. Trump +10 in #MN01 as a whole. So we can expect to see Finstad's (R) current 9.6 pt lead narrow significantly.
 
New: Blue Earth Co. (Mankato) just dropped, and it's another big Dem overperformance. Biden +4, Ettinger +12. #MN01
 
I've seen enough: Brad Pfaff (D) wins the #WI03 Dem primary and will face Derrick Van Orden (R) in the fall. @CookPolitical November rating: Lean R.
 
The GOP margin in the #MN01 special election (9.8 pts) is already below Trump's margin from 2020 (10.1 pts) and the district's two biggest Dem enclaves - Rochester and Mankato - haven't even reported any votes yet.
Replying to @Redistrict
To be clear, the #MN01 special is still a safe call for Brad Finstad (R), but his final margin over Jeff Ettinger (D) won't be anything to write home about - and fits a pattern of a "red wave" ebb post-Dobbs.
 
The GOP margin in the #MN01 special election (9.8 pts) is already below Trump's margin from 2020 (10.1 pts) and the district's two biggest Dem enclaves - Rochester and Mankato - haven't even reported any votes yet.
 
Two new counties just dropped results in #MN01 w/ huge Dem overperformances:

Mower: Biden -6, Ettinger +14
Winona: Biden +0.4, Ettinger +9

Mower is Ettinger's home county, but this is going to end up being a strong Dem showing.
 
In reply to @Redistrict
Just now looking at #MN01. Finstad up by 8,000 votes margin. Ettinger will get votes from the #CD1's population ctrs (Olmsted Co., Winona, Mankato) but that *won't* overcome Finstad's closeout advantage across the many many rural precincts. Calling it: ✅ Finstad 🥩#DONE
Replying to @MetroGram
Called it about two hours ago
 
In a decent outcome for Dems, Finstad (R) now on track to underperform Trump's 2020 numbers in tonight's #MN01 special:

Dodge: Trump +30, Finstad +27
Freeborn: Trump +16, Finstad +17
LeSeuer: Trump +30, Finstad +24
Nicollet: Trump -3, Finstad -6
Steele: Trump +22, Finstad +16
Replying to @Redistrict
Another possible encouraging sign for Dems re the enthusiasm gap: the only Dem-leaning county reporting so far (Nicollet) is at 34% of its 2020 turnout. Most GOP-leaning counties are only at ~25% of their 2020 turnout. #MN01
 
In a decent outcome for Dems, Finstad (R) now on track to underperform Trump's 2020 numbers in tonight's #MN01 special:

Dodge: Trump +30, Finstad +27
Freeborn: Trump +16, Finstad +17
LeSeuer: Trump +30, Finstad +24
Nicollet: Trump -3, Finstad -6
Steele: Trump +22, Finstad +16
 
And, if Ettinger (D) overperforms in his home county (Mower) or Dem turnout is high in the remaining high-college counties (Blue Earth, Olmsted, Nicollet, Winona), Dems could surpass Biden's numbers. #MN01
In reply to @baseballot
On that note, in apparently-completed Rice County, Finstad won 60–37%. Trump also won there 60–37%, so we're looking at a 2020-level performance. That wouldn't be bad for Dems in 2022!
 
A big deal: WI Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R) has apparently eked out a primary win over Trump-endorsed challenger Adam Steen (R), 52%-48%.
Text from Assembly Speaker Robin Vos: "I won."
 
I've seen enough: Brad Finstad (R) defeats Jeff Ettinger (D) in the #MN01 special election. But it's still too early to know the final margin. Best estimate: high single digits.
 
I've seen enough: Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) defeats Don Samuels in the #MN05 DFL primary. But it's the closest call of her career. @CookPolitical November rating: Solid D.
 
So far, Brad Finstad (R) looks on track for a high single-digit win over Jeff Ettinger (D) in the #MN01 special, which is about what we'd expect. Still a long way to go.
 
First county looks complete in #MN01 (Rock), and Finstad (R) wins it over Ettinger (D) 67%-32%. In 2020's House race, Hagedorn (R) won it 64%-32% while winning by 3 pts district-wide, so Finstad is hitting the numbers he needs so far.
 
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) is clinging to a 51%-48% lead over Don Samuels (D) in the #MN05 DFL primary, but Samuels is running out of real estate to make up that gap. Omar may prevail by a record thin margin.
 
Whatever the #MN01 special outcome tonight, moderate Brad Finstad (R) will defeat Freedom Caucus-backed Jeremy Munson (R) in the GOP primary for the full term in November.
 
I've seen enough: Trump-endorsed Tim Michels (R) defeats former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) in the #WIGOV GOP primary and will face Gov. Tony Evers (D) in the fall.
 
By the count, the #WIGOV GOP primary looks really tight. But judging by what's out, Trump-endorsed Tim Michels (R) is in a much better position than Rebecca Kleefisch (R).
 
Wow: far more of the vote just came in, and #MN05 Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D) lead vs. Don Samuels (D) is down to 51%-48%.
Replying to @Redistrict
Samuels, a Black former Minneapolis councilman who has pushed for stronger police funding, picked up late momentum w/ an endorsement from Mayor Jacob Frey last week & support from more moderate DFL suburban mayors. #MN05
 
Wow: far more of the vote just came in, and #MN05 Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D) lead vs. Don Samuels (D) is down to 51%-48%.
 
Trump-endorsed Tim Michels (R) looking quite strong vs. former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) so far in #WIGOV GOP primary.
 
So far, #MN05 Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) up just 53%-46% vs. former Minneapolis Councilman Don Samuels (D). Still early, but much closer than her 2020 primary.
 
Trump carried #MN01 54%-44% in 2020. So if Jeff Ettinger (D) were to finish within single digits of Brad Finstad (R) in tonight's special election, it would be a good result for Dems.

If Finstad's margin is 5 pts or less, it would be a great result for Dems. We'll see.
 
Dave Wasserman Retweeted ·  
BREAKING @HerreraBeutler has conceded in statement. "I’m proud that I always told the truth, stuck to my principles, and did what I knew to be best for our country." #waelex
 
I've seen enough: Sanders-endorsed state Sen. Becca Balint (D) defeats Lt. Gov. Molly Gray (D) in the #VTAL Dem primary. @CookPolitical November rating: Solid D.
Replying to @Redistrict
Balint is virtually certain to become the first woman ever elected to Congress from Vermont, the only state left that's never done so. #VTAL
 
I've seen enough: Sanders-endorsed state Sen. Becca Balint (D) defeats Lt. Gov. Molly Gray (D) in the #VTAL Dem primary. @CookPolitical November rating: Solid D.
 
Between retirements (Kinzinger, Gonzales, Upton, Katko, Jacobs) and primary defeats (McKinley, Davis, Rice, Meijer, Herrera Beutler), we're watching a slow-motion decimation of House GOP Trump skeptics and election certifiers.
 
Between retirements (Kinzinger, Gonzales, Upton, Katko, Jacobs) and primary defeats (McKinley, Davis, Rice, Meijer, Herrera Beutler), we're watching a slow-motion decimation of House GOP Trump skeptics and election certifiers.
 
I've seen enough: #WA03 Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) has lost reelection. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) and Joe Kent (R) will advance to November.
Replying to @Redistrict
Herrera Beutler is the third pro-impeachment GOP incumbent to lose reelection. Kent, endorsed by Trump, is the clear favorite to win this R+5 seat (@CookPolitical PVI) in the fall.
 
I've seen enough: #WA03 Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) has lost reelection. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) and Joe Kent (R) will advance to November.
In reply to @gardnerphil
Clark County reports 19,967 additional ballots counted. Kent net gains 1,116 over JHB, putting Kent in 2nd place by 813 votes.
 
New: pro-impeachment #WA04 Rep. Dan Newhouse (R) advances to the general election, where he's safe. But he's lucky: his pro-Trump GOP challengers split 49% of the vote six ways, while he scraped by w/ 25%.
 
Pro-impeachment Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) needs a miracle. Trump-endorsed Joe Kent (R) now the strong favorite to knock her out of the top two. #WA03
In reply to @gardnerphil
Clark County reports 14,573 new ballots counted in WA-03. Kent net gains 741 and is now 966 votes behind JHB. Approximately 30k remaining to be counted next week.
 
Still a long way to go, but it's quite possible #WA04 Rep. Dan Newhouse (R) is the lone Republican of the 10 who voted to impeach Trump who is still a member of Congress in January.
Replying to @Redistrict
Four are retiring. Two have lost. #WYAL Rep. Liz Cheney (R) is on track to lose in a landslide. #WA03 Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) is in extreme danger of being locked out of the top two. #CA21 Rep. David Valadao (R) is in a Toss Up race against a Democrat.
 
Still a long way to go, but it's quite possible #WA04 Rep. Dan Newhouse (R) is the lone Republican of the 10 who voted to impeach Trump who is still a member of Congress in January.
 
Fact: in Michigan, Republicans nominated three Black congressional candidates. Democrats? Zero. For the first time in 68 years, Detroit won't have a Black member of Congress.
 
NEW at @CookPolitical: five House rating changes. Notably, #NE02 Rep. Don Bacon (R) moves from Likely R to Toss Up and #MI03 OPEN (R) moves from Toss Up to Lean D as Dems show signs of life. Full analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
 
Looking closely at the patterns in #WA03, pro-conspiracy Joe Kent (R) might actually be a slight favorite over Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R), but it’s going to be tight.

Most #WA03 Dems probably don’t realize that by voting for a Dem instead of JHB, they aided Kent.
 
I’ve seen enough: Andy Ogles (R) wins the #TN05 GOP primary. @CookPolitical November rating: Solid R.
 
Pro-impeachment Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) not out of the woods yet. #WA03
With 3 of the 5 counties reporting today in (Clark, Cowlitz, Skamania), JHB's lead over Kent falls to 2,815. Down 1,115 from her 3,930 vote lead yesterday.

Kent won the 16k ballots counted in Clark today 26% to 20%. With ~45k in Clark to go, this will be *very* close.
 
In case you still thought Rep. Liz Cheney's goal is to win renomination to #WYAL on 8/16, here's the ad she just launched in a GOP primary in a 70% Trump state. youtube.com/watch?v=H6Nq9S…
 
Although Kansas sent a loud message, the final margins in upcoming special elections in #MN01 (@CookPolitical PVI R+9), #AKAL (R+8) and #NY19 (R+2) will be much more instructive of the post-Dobbs environment for the fall.
 
Endorse, w/ caveat that R candidates with out-of-the-mainstream abortion positions (no exceptions) could pay a significant penalty.
Narratives that also aren't necessarily accurate are that Kansas means Republicans are in trouble in the fall.

Plenty of Republicans support abortion access. They are still likely to vote for Republicans in a choice between an R and a D.
 
And, total vote share for all Dems/left-leaning candidates adds up to 58%. In other words, looks like a fairly typical WA election.
Another bit of good news for D’s out of WA state where Sen. Patty Murray at 54% in all-party primary. Lots of votes yet to count, but a 50+ showing suggests that Murray not as vulnerable as GOP would like her to be. cookpolitical.com/analysis/senat…
 
Trump-endorsed Kari Lake (R) has taken the lead over Gov. Ducey-backed Karrin Taylor Robson (R) by 11,324 votes (1.8 pts) in the #AZGOV GOP primary w/ more EDay ballots counted, and it doesn't look like she's giving it back.
 
New: Shri Thanedar (D) defeats state Sen. Adam Hollier (D) in the #MI13 Dem primary, meaning for the first time since 1954 there won’t be a Black member of Congress from Detroit.
 
I’ve seen enough: Blake Masters (R) wins the #AZSEN GOP primary and will face Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in the fall. @CookPolitical November rating: Toss Up.
 
Reality check: Gibbs starts at a huge cash deficit to Hillary Scholten (D) and could have a tough time unifying the GOP, considering Rep. Peter Meijer is on track for 46% in the primary and those are far from automatic Gibbs votes in November. Plus, the new #MI03 is Biden +8.
Gibbs seen here talking to former President Donald Trump.

"I'll see you soon. I'm very proud of you, John," Trump could be heard saying through the phone. (h/t John Barnes) pic.twitter.com/LkIKqs98Io
 
Right now, the "No" vote in Kansas is on track to hit over 90% of Biden's 2020 vote total in the state. The "Yes" side is on track to hit just over 50% of Trump's vote total (to be clear, lots of Trump voters were "No" today, but just a huge Dem turnout).
 
 
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