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Analysed 11,619 tweets, tweets from the last 283 weeks.
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Last 50 tweets from @Schuldensuehner
OUCH! German #inflation hits double digits for 1st time since WWII. Sep CPI accelerates to 10% from 7.9% in August.
 
How could you have earned 42% return yday from AA-rated investment?, DB's Reid asks & explains: Simple. At anytime between 8-11am all you had to do was buy 40y Gilts before BoE effectively restarted QE only days before QT was suppose to start (it’s been postponed until Halloween)
 
Good morning from #Germany, where #inflation could rise by double digits. In the most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia, CPI has risen by 10.1%, which is a record in the statistics. Compared to the previous month, #inflation increased 1.8%.
 
In our weekly @welt-Podcast DuZ we argue about whether we will now see a year-end rally in mkts, or if history will repeat itself & mkts will collapse again in Oct as they once did in 2008 during GFC. The chart of doom supports my bearish view. MUST HEAR! podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/jah…
 
BoE warns of risk to UK financial stability as it intervenes in bond market. Emergency action follows sell-off in UK govt bonds. Gilts rallied. UK 30y yields, which earlier touched 20y high >5%, fell by 0.75ppts to 4.3%, biggest daily drop in yields ever. ft.com/content/756e81…
 
Global bond yields turn lower after the Bank of England announced a kind of yield curve control. Bank of England said it would step into the market to buy long-dated govt bonds starting Wednesday to help restore order to the market.
 
10y UK yields drop by 40bps after Bank of England announces it will buy long-term govt debt as interest rates near 5% presenting a 'material risk to UK financial stability.'
 
US 10y yields hit 4% for 1st time since 2010.
 
#Germany's Dax drops <12k for the first time since Nov 2020.
 
Good Morning from Germany, where consumers are in depressed mood as disposable incomes fall. GfK German Consumer Confidence slumps to -42.5 in Oct vs -39 expected. Income expectations component plunged by 22.4 points to record low of -67.7, implying reduction in consumer spending
 
Another proof that the German housing boom is over. Shares of home builder HELMA Eigenbau plunge almost 25% after a massive profit warning.
 
#Gas price back >€200 per MWh and German 1y year ahead power price back at €500 per MWh on risk Russia may sanction #Ukaine's Naftogaz.
 
QT? Not in the Eurozone! #ECB balance sheet has risen by >€20bn in the past week to €8,777.4bn, just €58.6bn shy of an ATH. Total assets now equal to 81% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 35.4%, BoJ's 128.1%, BoE's 39%.
 
The recent bond rout can be observed in #Austria in particular. The risk premium of 10y Austrian bonds over Germany has risen to 0.64ppts, the highest level since the euro debt crisis in 2012.
 
Good morning from #Austria, where the bond rout is particularly evident in the 100y Austrian paper. The price has almost halved since the beginning of the year. Compared with the price high in 2020, the price of the bond is worth only one-third as much.
 
Japan 20y yields rise >1% for 1st time since 2015 as bond rout spreads.
 
OUCH! Wall St sank in a volatile session Monday, pushing the S&P 500 Index to its lowest close since December 2020. Fed Funds Rate ceiling spiked to ~4.85% at one point before settling back at 4.65%.
 
Asked about #Italy, #ECB's Lagarde says she won't fix 'policy errors' while Italy's risk spread over Germany is jumping to the highest level since May 2020.
 
Christine Lagarde said the #ECB will consider QT (shrinking its balance sheet) only once it has completed the “normalization” of interest rates. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
 
UK 10y risk spread over Germany jumps to highest since 1992 when Soros won against the Bank of England.
 
Sterling falls to record low against the dollar. ft.com/content/c7f815…
 
#Euro hit a fresh 20y low after Italian far-right won elections in Italy.
 
Brent #oil fell <$85bbl for the 1st time since January amid mounting concerns about a global recession.
 
#Italy 10y risk spread over Germany nudges higher to 232bps after Italy elects first far-right govt since World War II.
 
#Italy 10y yields jump to 4.42% after Giorgia Meloni won a clear majority in Sunday’s Italian election, setting herself up to become the country’s first female PM at the head of the most right-wing govt since World War II. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
 
Good Morning from #Germany, where FinMin Christian Lindner wants to introduce as gas price cap to tame the energy crisis which would cost between €60-€100bn without having to violate the German debt brake.
 
Right-wing politicians from #Germany's AfD, France's National Rally, and Poland's PiS have congratulated Giorgia Meloni on her win in #Italy's elections.
 
The FTSE MIB index’s price-to-book ratio suggests the Italian election risk is already priced in. Italy's benchmark index trades at just one time book value!
 
#Euro starts unchg at 20y low <0.97 US Cent to the week as Meloni short of a super-majority in Italian elections which is positive for investors.
 
OUCH! Meloni's Right-wing bloc set for clear majority in Italian vote. Meloni’s alliance, which incl Salvini’s League & Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, will win –43% of vote, acc to exit polls. Would give her –121 seats in crucial upper house, where 104 votes required for majority.
 
Wharton's Jeremy Siegel accuses Fed of making one of the biggest policy mistakes in its 110-year history marketwatch.com/story/whartons…
 
Looks like the bond market bubble has burst. The value of global bonds has plunged by another $1.2tn this week, bringing the total loss from ATH to $12.2tn.
 
The real drama in the financial markets cannot be seen in the stock fear barometer VIX which trades below 30, but in the bond volatility index MOVE which trades at elevated levels.
 
This chart shows that the recent bond market rout is not the result of an inflation scare, but is about a Dollar liquidity squeeze. 10y US real rates have jumped to 1.31%, highest level since 2011. The bond market is thus signaling stress.
 
Good Morning from #Germany, where #Retailcalypse is accelerating. Bonds of consumer electronics retailer Ceconomy (Media Markt, Saturn) dipped deeper into distressed territory as weakening consumer sentiment & rising costs weigh on outlook. 2026 notes trade at 59.5 Cent for 1€.
 
Judging by Italian bond mkts at least, investors unperturbed by prospect of a right-wing coalition taking power after Sunday’s snap election. #Italy’s 10y risk spread over Germany is below year high ahead of elections. But many fear calm will not last long bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
 
Traders purchased downside options protection at a record pace on Friday as psychology turns increasingly despondent. Overall volume in put options surged to highest level ever. ‘Fear clearly arrived,’ says Alon Rosin at Oppenheimer. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… (HT @knowledge_vital)
 
Holger Zschaepitz Retweeted ·  
Hey guys, don't miss this week's @WELT podcast DuZ. It's about the most profitable investment in economic history. And I argue with my guest about the Patagonia case, whether that's good or bad. And I reveal why I have subscribed to the Porsche IPO. podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/das…
Deffner & Zschpitz: Wirtschaftspodcast von WELT auf ApplePodcasts
podcasts.apple.com
 
Good Morning from #Germany where recession is the new consensus forecast for 2023. Economists expect German econ to shrink by 0.3% in coming year. In Apr, experts were still expecting growth north of 2.5%. If politicians continue to maneuver, recession could turn into depression!
 
Dow Jones fell to its lowest point since the earliest weeks of the pandemic, plunging <30k for 2nd time in 2022. S&P500 is a better way to track the stock market but the Dow retains a wide following & influences the public's perception of the economy. axios.com/newsletters/ax…
 
#Germany's Dax hit lowest level since Nov 2020 on recession/depression fears.
 
Pound plunges after Liz Truss’s govt has set out the most radical package of tax cuts for Britain since 1972.
 
UK’s biggest tax cuts since 1972 trigger crash in bonds. 5y GILT yields jump >50bps, biggest daily jump on record.
 
Europe's benchmark index Stoxx600 has entered bear market territory. Now down >20% from ATH.
 
To put things into perspective: Bond losses in '22 greatest since 1949 (Marshall Plan), 1931 (Credit-Anstalt), 1920 (Treaty of Versailles), BofA says.
 
This chart highlights that the housing boom in Germany is over. The real estate lender Hypoport shares plunge as much as 34%, most ever, after the group suspended its forecast for the full year, saying residential mortgage finance customers are holding back on property purchases.
 
Good Morning from #Germany, where majority of listed comps are owned by foreigners. Less than 30% of Dax 40 shares belong to German investors, meaning only €18bn of the €54bn in dividends distributed remains in the country. Vonovia, Deutsche Börse, MTU 80% owned by foreigners.
 
Hey guys, don't miss this week's @WELT podcast DuZ. It's about the most profitable investment in economic history. And I argue with my guest about the Patagonia case, whether that's good or bad. And I reveal why I have subscribed to the Porsche IPO. podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/das…
Deffner & Zschpitz: Wirtschaftspodcast von WELT auf ApplePodcasts
podcasts.apple.com
 
#Fed QT at snail's pace: Fed balance sheet has shrunk by tiny $16bn in past week. Since high in April, total assets have melted down by just $49 billion. Since the high in April, total assets have melted down by just $148bn. Fed balance sheet equal to 35% of US GDP vs #ECB's 81%.
 
US stocks continue grinding lower as financial conditions tighten following a avalanche of rate hikes (15 CenBanks hiked a total of 637.5bp so far this week) & further increase in yields. S&P 500 heading for its June lows but Fear Index Vix almost unchg.
 
 
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