@izading | 4,460 followers
If you can read only one thing to make sense of the protests in #China, read “Now Out of Never” by Timur Kuran. It’s one of those studies that cannot be summarized in a thread, so I won’t attempt it. Just go read it in its entirety, it’s worth it. I have a few reflections 1/7🧵

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In reply to @izading
The article is best-known for the concept of “preference falsification,” the idea that people lie about supporting an authoritarianism regime. But the coolest part is in the second half, where people start to falsify their support for the revolution once it grows and succeeds 2/7
 
 
In reply to @izading
Thank you very much, Iza, for this informative thread and generous compliments. Yes, the eruption in China has surprised even China specialists and the CCP. It won’t be the last time they are surprised, I think (and, for the sake of the people of China, hope).
 
In reply to @izading
Elster covered this ground before. He subdivides preference falsification into cynicism & pluralistic ignorance. Former is in old Soviet system where everyone knows everyone else is falsely reporting satisfaction. Latter is people don't know their dissatisfaction shared by others
 
"4 months after the fall of communism in East Germany, East Germans were asked "A year ago did you expect such a peaceful revolution?" Only 5% answered in the affirmative, 18% answered "yes, but not that fast." Fully 76% indicated that the revolution had totally surprised them."
 
W/o getting into the meta discussion about twitter, I want to thank this platform and @izading for pointing me to this article. I read it many years ago, forgot who wrote it and what it’s title was. Searched and searched for it but failed. And now here we are👍
 
👇Fascinating thread. My own experience 18 yrs ago in Orange Revolution #Ukraine convinced me that civic self-confidence can shoot up very rapidly, building on itself. From same example, it can dissipate quickly.
 
It's an insightful/important read, to be sure - I assign it in my classes. But I find Serge Moscovici's work (and Noelle-Neumann's to a degree) more compelling for the longer view analysis tying in slow-brewing dissatisfaction with status quo (among some) and sudden change (many)
 
In reply to @izading
Teach it annually in my comparative politics graduate proseminar. Wonderful paper.
 
In reply to @izading
Still my favorite article ever, I think.
 
 
The article is best-known for the concept of “preference falsification,” the idea that people lie about supporting an authoritarianism regime. But the coolest part is in the second half, where people start to falsify their support for the revolution once it grows and succeeds
 
‘La víctima de hoy es el vencedor de mañana, y en este momento está naciendo de la nada!’ decía Bertolt Brecht, cita que recuerda Kuran en ese paper.
 
This. @timurkuran helps us to understand so much.
 
 
In reply to @bocarlson1
In this excellent thread, @izading also notes the parallels between 1989 and today and extrapolates Kuran's argument. twitter.com/izading/status…
 
"Now out of never" - Fascinating paper, refreshingly easy to read, packed with substance.

Not only to understand China today but our own societies, history and politics.
 
 
In reply to @izading
Can anyone link to a pdf version?
 
 
Timur Kuran e a imprevisibilidade inevitável. De volta aos anos 90.
 
 
 
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